Bitcoin (BTC) Tail risk

Historical loss quantiles and expected shortfall.

Bitcoin (BTC) Tail risk

Historical loss quantiles and expected shortfall.

How to compare readings

Read the instrument, venue, selected period, units and available coverage together. A study summarizes its source inputs; it does not establish a future price or guarantee an outcome. Missing observations remain unavailable rather than becoming zero.

Explore market data

Market correlations
Rolling daily-return correlation against Bitcoin.
Bitcoin cycle charts
Pi Cycle, Mayer Multiple, AHR999 (2019), Golden Ratio Multiplier, 200-week, two-year and 1,460-day averages, satoshis per dollar, and an independent Rainbow model.
Bitcoin price history
Completed calendar returns and drawdown from observed Coinbase daily closes.
US M2 money supply
Monthly US money supply and year-over-year growth alongside Bitcoin.
Puell Multiple
Realized Bitcoin issuance value versus its 365-day average, with source dates.
Bitcoin (BTC) EWMA volatility
Exponentially weighted volatility.
Bitcoin (BTC) Range volatility
Parkinson, Rogers–Satchell and Yang–Zhang estimates.
Bitcoin (BTC) Hurst persistence
Persistence estimated from completed price history.
Crypto market data
Explore liquidation heatmaps, funding, open interest, ETF flows, token unlocks, order flow and quantitative research tools.
Market data methodology
Understand AutoSignal chart calculations, data coverage, model assumptions, source timestamps and research limitations.
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